METHOD TO FORECAST EARTHQUAKES Russian patent published in 2014 - IPC G01V9/00 

FIELD: measurement equipment.

SUBSTANCE: usage: invention relates to the field of seismology and is designed to study forecasting of earthquakes. Substance: surveys are carried out in the territory of a measurement polygon, for instance, urban agglomeration or a critical commercial facility, they determine M - magnitude, and t - time of earthquake by available monitoring surveys with equipment placed within the limits of the territory of the measurement polygon. Monitoring surveys on the measurement polygon are carried out with a network of seismology equipment from at least 4, preferably 10-14, three-component recorders of seismic oscillations, placed from each other at specified distances within the limits of the measurement polygon and simultaneously by equipment to monitor variation of water level in one hydrogeological well, besides, the water level in the hydrogeological well must react to lunisolar tides. Using seismic records from the source of seismic waves - distance earthquakes (at the distance of more than 2°), they establish magnitude of a future earthquake, and on the basis of reaction of a water-bearing horizon in the hydrogeological well to the effect of lunisolar tides they determine the time slot of the medium-term forecast, the start of short-term forecast, and determine the time of earthquake occurrence. The time of start of the time slot of the medium-term forecast is determined by the time t₁ - start of stop of the reaction of water-bearing horizon to the effect of the lunisolar tide, and the time of start of the short-term forecast of the earthquake t₂ is set on the basis of time of recovery of the reaction of the water-bearing horizon to the effect of the lunisolar tide. The moment of earthquake occurrence to relative to the time t₁ is determined according to the dependence t₀={[(t₂-t₁)+1]+(1+/-1)}, where time t₀, t₁ and t₂ is defined in days.

EFFECT: determination of magnitude and time of an earthquake with accuracy of (+/-) 1 day for the measurement polygon territory.

2 cl, 5 dwg