METHOD OF DETERMINING PROBABILITY OF CATASTROPHIC PHENOMENA Russian patent published in 2013 - IPC G01V11/00 

FIELD: physics.

SUBSTANCE: parameter of the Earth's microseismic field in a controlled region is measured. An earthquake is imminent upon detection of sinusoidal fluctuations of the measured parameter, having a rising frequency and an amplitude which, with statistical certainty, differs from the background for the controlled region, and a period from 100 to 1000000 s. Furthermore, atmospheric pressure and temperature are recorded. The sum of increments of the amplitude values of the function of pressure and temperature from time is determined at each selected point. A zone with values of said parameter that are not equal to zero are determined. The time of onset of an earthquake is determined from the time of appearance of said zones. The place of a possible earthquake is determined from the spatial position of said zones. Besides the above-mentioned, at one of the points of the earthquake-prone region, changes in the wave conditions of the atmosphere are diagnosed based on data on regular measurements of total content of ozone. The nature of the change in seismogenic frequency ranges in real-time ozonometry data, predetermined from archival data, is compared with reference seismogenic trends of activation of high frequencies on a background of decrease of low frequencies. Earthquake-prone periods are selected and the onset time of the earthquake is adjusted. The approximate strength of the earthquake is determined from the clarity of said effects and duration thereof, and the position of the epicentral area is determined from distinctive features of the spatial structure of spectral effects.

EFFECT: high reliability of determining probability of catastrophic phenomena.

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