FIELD: data processing.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to methods of determining mode of values of geophysical value W - wind velocity, height of sea, air temperature. Geophysical value W is repeatedly measured, measurement results form a time series of data W(t) and, using a series measurement data W(t), an empirical probabilistic function availability F(W), then for determined analytical function availability Fap(W), which is extrapolated beyond maximum value of measurement data WM to value specified probabilistic mode, from which unknown value of a secure geophysical value is determined. Analytical approximation Fap(W) is made in form of a polynomial degree of n, coefficients of which are determined using a known method in logarithmic coordinates for functions of availability and linear coordinates for geophysical value W. Lower Wlo and upper Whi boundary region of constructing approximation [Wlo, Whi] and degree of n is chosen so that value of logarithm of approximating function Fap(WM), taken at point of maximum value of measurement data WM, that is larger than corresponding values of empirical function F(WM) on value not exceeding error Δ for F(WM), which is determined by measurement data.
EFFECT: method provides higher reliability of obtained estimates of operating values.
1 cl, 6 dwg
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Authors
Dates
2016-06-10—Published
2014-06-16—Filed