METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF STORM WATER LEVEL RISES Russian patent published in 2016 - IPC G01W1/00 

FIELD: data processing.

SUBSTANCE: invention refers to hydrometeorology and can be used to forecast water storm tides or floods. Summery: archive of floods (date-level) is made for maximum possible period. Archive of surface atmospheric pressure fields by time data (for two terms) in the region of cyclonic storm formation above a sea reach is created. Flood recurrence for all months of a year is calculated. Based on value of recurrence of floods “flooding period” (recurrence is more than 1 %) and “non-flood period” of year are extracted. For months in “non-flood period”, floods are considered to be rare event, therefore automatically conclusion is made on “flooding situation”. For every month of “flooding period” empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) are determined throughout entire archive of urgent observations of surface atmospheric pressure fields. Then, for every month of “flooding period” empirical orthogonal components (EOC) are calculated. Range of three first EOC is separated from minimum to maximum value for dates of flooding for every month of “flooding period”, and reference area of EOC for every month is formed. Afterwards basing on the results of real-time hydrodynamic forecast of the surface atmospheric pressure field the EOC are calculated according to the previously created EOF for this month. Belonging of the forecast field EOC to the EOC reference zone of floods for the forecast month is identified. Conclusion is made on occurrence/non-occurrence of “flooding situation” for analysed prognostic period. When analysing prognostic period of “flooding situation” calculated number of storms with given continuous duration for given confidence of storm conditions probability. Detecting time period within which wind velocity enables safe transition of ship. Spatial distribution of oscillation phase of water body by measurements of sea level height by means of altimetry satellites. Tidal and seiche sea level fluctuations are separated.

EFFECT: broader functional capabilities.

1 cl, 8 dwg