FIELD: radio engineering and communications.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to a method for automatically predicting the dynamics of changes in the quantitative and qualitative state of a fleet of special-purpose radio systems (SP RS). Method introduces the necessary initial data, ranks a number of samples of the SP RS fleet in question by priority, form the initial structure of the dynamics of the change in the quantitative and qualitative state of the SP RS fleet during the forecasting period, determine the parameters of the scenario for changing the resource and financial constraints on the control effect during the forecasting period, calculate the number of realizations necessary to ensure the required accuracy, perform agent simulation of the technical state of the samples of the considered SP RS fleet, taking into account the randomness and interrelationship of the multi-stage processes of the technical state of the SP RS samples, on the basis of statistical data, the predicted values of the indicators of the dynamics of the change in the quantitative and qualitative state of the SP RS fleet during the forecasting period are calculated.
EFFECT: technical result is to automate and improve the accuracy of forecasting.
1 cl, 1 dwg
