FIELD: medicine.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to cardiology, and can be used for prediction of unfavourable cardiovascular events in elderly and senile patients within five years after suffered myocardial infarction (MI). Main factors are determined: presence of reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, determined during hospitalization for myocardial infarction, the presence of chronic cardiac failure (CHF) in the previous stage II A clinical history and higher, presence of complications of acute myocardial infarction, regularity of out-patient follow-up after MI. Probability of unfavourable cardiovascular events is determined by formula: p = 1/(1 + exp (-z)), where p - probability of unfavourable cardiovascular events; z - value of discriminant function, and value of discriminant function is determined by formula: z = a + bx1 + cx2 + dx3 + ex4, where a is constant, x1-x4 - values of variables corresponding to the considered indicators, coefficients b, c, d, e - weight coefficients of the corresponding indicators: a = -1.397, b = 1.349, x1 - reduced glomerular filtration rate less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, x1= 1 with reduction of glomerular filtration rate less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, x1= 0 at glomerular filtration rate 60 and more ml/min/1.73 m2, c = 2.228, x2 - presence of CHF in previous II A stage and above, x2= 1 in the presence of chronic heart failure in the II A stage and above, x2= 0 in the absence of CHF in the II A previous clinical stage and higher, d = 0.933, x3 - presence of acute myocardial infarction complications, x3= 1 if observing acute MI complications, x3= 0 with no complications of acute MI, e = 1.709, x4 - regularity of out-patient observation, x4= 1 in case of irregular out-patient observation after MI, x4= 0 with regular out-patient observation after MI. If value p≥0.5 predict developing unfavourable cardiovascular events within five years of postinfarction period.
EFFECT: method provides high-accuracy prediction of unfavourable cardiovascular events in elderly and senile patients within five years after MI as a result of determining a set of factors influencing the development of unfavourable cardiovascular events in the post-infarction period using the inverse step-by-step regression technique.
1 cl, 1 tbl, 2 ex
