METHOD OF PREDICTION OF PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF SINGLE AND RECURRENT DISC HERNIATION AT THE LEVEL OF LUMBAR SPINE Russian patent published in 2023 - IPC G01N33/68 G01N33/53 

FIELD: medicine; neurosurgery.

SUBSTANCE: invention can be used to predict the likelihood of developing a single and repeated recurrence of a herniated disc at the level of the lumbar spine. In a patient with a primary herniated disc or an operated recurrence of a herniated disc, the level of indicators in the blood serum is assessed: vascular endothelial factor (VEGF); matrix metalloproteinase-8 (MMP8); transforming growth factor (TGF). Each indicator has quantitative gradations corresponding to the numerical value. Probability calculation (parameter z1) is carried out according to the following formula: z1=0.0052*VEGF+0.0468*MMP8+0.001*TGFβ1-6.2901. If the value of z1<0, then the herniated disc at the level of the lumbar spine does not recur. If 0<z1<3, then there is a possibility of a single recurrence of disc herniation. If z1>3, then there is a possibility of recurrent disc herniation.

EFFECT: method enables simple reliable prediction of single and repeated recurrence of intervertebral disc herniation at the level of the lumbar spine by assessing VEGF levels in blood serum. MMP8 and TGF, reflecting the state of the tissues of the spinal motion segment in real time.

1 cl, 1 dwg, 1 tbl, 3 ex