METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE IN PATIENTS AT NO SIGNS OF BRONCHIAL OBSTRUCTION Russian patent published in 2007 - IPC A61B10/00 

FIELD: medicine, therapy, pulmonology.

SUBSTANCE: the present innovation deals with predicting the development of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), determining clinical symptoms and risk factors out of life anamnesis: dyspnea, passive smoking, sputum production, cough, crepitation in lungs, episodes of cough with sputum being more than 3 wk, sex, snore. It is necessary to establish their gradations and digital values. Then one should estimate prognostic coefficients F₁, F₂, F₃ by the following formulas: F₁=-4.10-3.35*A₁-2.68*A₂-1.74*A₃-1.22*A₄-0.48*A₅-0.10*A₆-0.20*A₇-0.32*A₈; F₂=-5.69-3.32*A₁+4.62*A₂-1.21*A₃-0.08*A₄-0.79*A₅-0.08*A₆-0.25*A₇+0.01*A₈; F₃=-8.14+7.47*A₁-1.79*A₂-1.16*A₃-0.95*A₄-0.19*A5-0.76*A₆+0.69*A₇+0.38*A₈; F₄=-12.4+3.90*A₁-0.05*A₂+5.87*A₃+3.17*A₄+2.14*A₅+0.98*A₆+0.09*A₇+0.20*A₈. At F₄ being above F₁ or F₂ or F₃ or F₄ one should predict high risk for COPD development. At F₂ being above F₁, or F₃, or F₄ - low risk for COPD development. The innovation enables to carry out early onset of prophylactic measures.

EFFECT: higher accuracy and efficiency of prediction.

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