METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE IN SMOKING PERSONS Russian patent published in 2007 - IPC A61B10/00 

FIELD: medicine, therapy, pulmonology.

SUBSTANCE: the present innovation deals with predicting the development chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in smoking persons. It is necessary to detect clinical symptoms and risk factors out of life anamnesis: the index of packs/yr - A₁; smoking intensity degree - A₂; the number of cigarettes smoked out daily - A₃; what cigarette are smoked out - A₄; the experience of smoking in years - A₅; the availability of dyspnea or crepitation - A₆; how much has been smoked out against the cigarette's length - A₇; whether the quantity of smoked out cigarettes has been changed during the last years - A₈; inhalation of cigarette smoke - A₉; the availability of sputum - A₁₀; how often sputum is separated - A₁₁; the degree of nicotinic addiction in points by Fagerstrem's test - A₁₂ to establish their digital values and determine prognostic coefficients F₁, F₂, F₃ by the following formulas: F₁=-3.04-0.23*A₁-2.11*A₂-2.57*A₃-0.60*A₄-0.97*A₅+0.44*A₆-0.37*A₇+0.19*A₈+0.28*A₉+0.16*A₁₀-0.08*A₁₁+0.29*A₁₂; F₂=-1.82-2.03*A₁+1.45*A₂+2.61*A₃-0.17*A₄+1.64*A₅-0.29*A₆+0.29*A₇-0.19*A₈-0.20*A₉-0.16*A₁₀-0.06*A₁₁-0.49*A₁₂; F₃=-13.99+8.30*A₁+3.08*A₂+0.75*A₃+3.04*A₄-2.09*A₅-0.71*A₆+0.40*A₇-0.08*A₈-0.37*A₉-0.02*A₁₀+0.56*A₁₁+0.64*A₁₂. At F₃ or F₂ being above F₁ one should predict high risk of COPD development, at F₁ being above F₂ or F₃ one should predict low risk for COPD development. The innovation enables to evaluate the risk of COPD development more efficiently among smoking persons and simplify the method for its prediction.

EFFECT: higher accuracy and efficiency of prediction.

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