FIELD: medicine.
SUBSTANCE: invention refers to medicine, namely to therapy and rheumatology. The following risk factors are observed: body weight index (BWI) less than 20 kg/m2 in 25 years and at the present time; low motion activity - hiking less than half an hour a day after 50 years and at the present time; early menopause before 45 years, previous fractures of forearm, shin and ribs; elementary education; stroke after 50 years; physical inability observed; insufficient dietary intake of calcium; climax before 45 years; number of deliveries; enteritis; gastritis. They are graded and evaluated, then predicting factors F1 and F2 define under formulae: F1= - 3.86 - 1.15*a1 - 0.54*a2 - 0.67a3 + 0.60*a4 -0.54*a5 - 0.55*a6 - 0.53*a7 - 0.60*a8 - 0.67*a9 - 0.56*a10 - 0.54*a11 - 0.71*a12 -0.57*a13 + 0.48*a14 - 0.37*a15; F2= 0.70 + 0.44*a1 + 0.21*a2 + 0.25*a3 - 0.22*a4 + 0.20*a5 + 0.21*a6 + 0.22*a7 + 0.23*a8 + 0.26* a9 + 0.20*a10 + 0.20*a11, + 0.28*a12 + 0.22*a13 - 0.19*a14 + 0.13*a15, respectively, where a1-5 are gradation and numerical values of the risk factors: ai is a body weight index less then 20 kg/m2 at the present time: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a2 - hiking less than half an hour a day at the present time: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a3 - previous fractures of forearm: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a4 - insufficient dietary intake of calcium: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a5 - body weight index at 25 years less than 20 kg/m2: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a6 - previous fractures of ribs: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a7 - enteritis: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a8 - gastritis: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a9 - previous fractures of shin: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a10 - elementary education: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a11 - stroke after 50 years: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a12 - hiking less than half an hour a day after 50 years: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a13 - early menopause: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a14 - three and more deliveries: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed; a15 - physical inability: 0 - not observed, 1 - observed. If F1 is more than F2, high risk is predicted, and is F1 it less than F2, low risk of potential vertebral fractures in the patient is predicted.
EFFECT: method provides possibility to estimate risk of development osteoporotic vertebral fractures with accuracy 94,4% and thereby allows improving effectiveness and commitment of the preventive and therapeutic actions in groups of the patients with high risk of potential fractures.
2 tbl, 2 ex
