FIELD: mining industry.
SUBSTANCE: crustal area of excess elastic tectonic deformation is determined. In this area, below loose inhomogeneous sediment layer, but certainly over typical source zones, a homogeneous horizontal bed of hard and rigid rock - competent bed - is selected. Monitoring investigations of level of microseismic emission from the competent bed are carried out. Contours of microseismic emission level are plotted, and their statistically significant circular components are determined by means of known methods. They are used to determine the epicentre of the expected main shock and its source zone level depth. Amplitude is determined. The earthquake time is estimated according to source zone surveillance.
EFFECT: improved reliability of short-term forecast.
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