METHOD OF ESTIMATING MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICIPATED STRONG TSUNAMIGENIC EARTHQUAKE AND SYSTEM FOR REALISING SAID METHOD Russian patent published in 2012 - IPC G01V9/00 

FIELD: physics.

SUBSTANCE: seismogenic zones are identified. A geotectonic model is constructed for an identified seismogenic zone. A displacement parameter is determined at measurement points for a moderate earthquake (foreshocks) using GLONASS-GPS satellite navigation, wherein deformation processes of the seismogenic zones are identified and described. Deformation processes are evaluated by comparing parameters of said displacements with seismogram processing results. Space-time analysis is carried out by mapping seismic activity anomalies and identifying earthquake precursors (foreshocks). Structural features in space-time sequences of "indicator" events (foreshocks) are identified for each identified seismogenic zone. The region bracing for a strong tsunamigenic earthquake for the investigated seismoactive and tsunamigenic zone is delineated based on analysis of the spatial distribution of moderate earthquakes (foreshocks). Space-time analysis is carried out to identify the focal region bracing for a strong earthquake. "Prognostic features" are also contrastively identified based on a procedure for correcting the location of the initially identified focal region (zone). Instrumental observation data are restored using a formula for constructing the unknown approximation functions for the magnitude of the earthquake depending on the time of occurrence of that earthquake. The time of onset of the anticipated strongest seismic event is monitored as the behaviour of the point of intersection of the reconstructed lines by processing, on each subsequent time step, data on indicator earthquakes for the investigated focal region. The position of the hypocentre (latitude, longitude and depth) and the magnitude of the anticipated strongest tsunamigenic earthquake are estimated as seismic events unfold in the observed focal region. To this end, the time of onset of the anticipated strongest seismic event is monitored and characteristics of a second main prognostic feature is estimated - occurrence on the "tip of the energy wedge" of an anomalously weak earthquake which is followed by the strongest earthquake. Coordinates of the position of the epicentre of the main shock are matched with coordinates of the epicentre of the anomalous seismic event, and the magnitude of the main shock is estimated from the value of the difference between the average magnitude of the process of preparing for the anticipated strong tsunamigenic earthquake and the magnitude of the anomalously weak earthquake. The system for estimating main characteristics of an anticipated strong tsunamigenic earthquake comprises the following units: a unit for recording seismic events using a system of seismic stations and receiving information in a processing centre (2), a unit for primary and combined processing of geomonitoring data (3), a unit for specialised seismotectonic analysis of geomonitoring data and constructing models of seismogenic structures using modern GIS technologies (4), a data analysis unit for the identified focal region bracing for a strong tsunamigenic earthquake (7), and a unit for estimating parameters of the anticipated strongest earthquake (15). The unit for specialised seismotectonic analysis of geomonitoring data and constructing models of seismogenic structures using modern GIS technologies (4) consists of a recording unit for determining displacement parameters at measurement points using GLONASS-GPS satellite navigation (5) and a unit for evaluating deformation processes (6). The data analysis unit for the identified focal region bracing for a strong tsunamigenic earthquake (7) consists of a delineating unit (8), a unit for contrastive analysis and constructing models of space- and time-distribution of seismic events (9), a unit for constructing the main prognostic feature (10), a unit for contrasting "prognostic features" (11), a space-time analysis unit (12), a unit for restoring instrumental observation data (13) and a unit for estimating the "time" parameter (14). The unit for estimating parameters of the anticipated strongest earthquake (15) consists of a unit for monitoring and adjusting the time of onset of the anticipated tsunamigenic earthquake (16), a unit for estimating the position of the epicentre (17) and a unit for estimating the magnitude of the main shock (18).

EFFECT: high accuracy of estimating main characteristics of an anticipated strong tsunamigenic earthquake.

4 cl, 13 dwg