FIELD: physics.
SUBSTANCE: proposed method proceeds from analysis of solar radiation in preflare period. Method feature consists in that solar radio radiation flow data is measured in the form of time duration record equal to duration of observation interval, but not less than three hours. Combination of daily measurements is compiled. Extreme points are isolated to determine difference in consecutive radio radiation flow values at extreme points. Mean amplitude of long-term pulsations of radio radiation (LTP) is determined (period exceeding or equal to 20 minutes). LTP mean amplitudes for i-th and i-th+1 day are compared. If LTP mean amplitude for i-th+1 day is twice as large as that for i-th day, high-power flare may occur in i-th+2 and i-th+3 days. If in i-th+2 day mean amplitude does not increase compared with i-th day, high-power flare may occur in i-th+3 day. If in i-th+2 day mean amplitude decrease then no flare will occur in i-th+3 day.
EFFECT: higher validity of forecast.
10 dwg
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