NOWCASTING OF ONSET OF GEOEFFECTIVE PROTON FLUX IN NEAR-EARTH ENVIRONMENT Russian patent published in 2013 - IPC G01W1/10 

FIELD: physics.

SUBSTANCE: information on X-ray solar radiation is continuously collected and analysed in the wavelength range of 0.1-0.8 nm, wherein during real-time prediction, X-ray bursts with intensity higher than 5*10^-5 W/m² are sought and for each such burst, the "protonness" parameter is determined from a given relationship and depending on its value and the helio-duration of the burst, the probability of observing, in the near-Earth environment, a solar proton event with proton energy greater than 30 MeV with intensity at the peak of the event higher than given levels is determined.

EFFECT: providing earlier forecast and providing better measurement of the burst evolution time and enabling prediction of onset after bursts of past events of different levels of intensity.

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