METHOD TO FORECAST CROP CAPACITY OF SPRING WHEAT Russian patent published in 2012 - IPC A01G7/00 

FIELD: agriculture.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to the field of agriculture. In the method a multiple regressive dependence is used Y=a+b₁X+b₂Z, c/ha, where X-temperatures, Z- precipitations, a, b₁ and b₂ - coefficients, at the same time average active temperatures are measured, as well as average precipitations and appropriate crop capacities M of preceding vegetation periods, on the basis of which coefficients of regressive equation are calculated: b₁, b₂ and a using the following equations:

, where Y, c/ha - spring wheat crops of i vegetation period, , c/ha - averaged crop of spring wheat for M years that precede the forecasted vegetation period, X, °C - total active temperature of i vegetation period, , °C -averaged total active temperature for M years preceding forecasted vegetation period, Z, mm - total precipitations of i vegetation period, mm - averaged total precipitations for M years preceding forecasted vegetation period, the average daily active temperature is measured, as well as appropriate precipitations in the forecasted vegetation period from the start of vegetation to the date of forecast, on the basis of which equivalent active temperatures are calculated - X_e, as well as equivalent precipitations - Z_e for the multiple regressive equation using the following formulas: where, daily - averaged duration of vegetation, measured and calculated from preceding vegetation periods; t_a, °C - daily active temperature of forecasted vegetation period; o_a, mm -appropriate daily precipitations of the forecasted vegetation period; and n - current number of days in the forecasted vegetation period for the moment of forecasting, which are put into the multiple regressive equation instead of average temperatures and precipitations.

EFFECT: method makes it possible to reduce labour intensiveness of spring wheat crop capacity forecasting and to produce efficient and valid information on crop volumes.

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