METHOD FOR RAPID PREDICTION OF NEED OF POPULATION FOR EMERGENCY MEDICAL MEANS FOR RESPIRATORY DISEASES IN PERIOD OF MASS FIRES OF PINE FORESTS Russian patent published in 2016 - IPC A61B10/00 

FIELD: medicine.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to methods of prediction of incidence gain based on demand for emergency medical care in case of population exposition to complex toxic substances formed during combustion of pine forests and can be used in hygienic diagnostics of population health loss in emergencies for a timely optimisation of practical medical care. It is necessary to determine the area of a forest fire; the difference between the wind direction and the axis “forest fire source - residential area”, the distance from the forest fire source to the residential area, the wind speed; it is also necessary to calculate the coefficient accounting for deviation of the wind direction from the axis “forest fire source - residential area”; then a prognostic index is calculated. If the prognostic index is within the interval of 1-50, a gain of demand for emergency medical care (EMC) of the population with respiratory diseases (RD) relative to the background level demand is predicted in the range of 15-30%; if the prognostic index is within the interval of 51-100, a gain of demand for EMC of the population with RD relative to the background level demand is predicted in the range of 31-70%; if the prognostic index is within the interval of 101-180, a gain of demand for EMC of population with RD relative to the background level is predicted within 71-110%; in the interval of 181-300, a gain of demand for EMC of population with RD relative to the background level is predicted within 111-200%; if the prognostic index exceeds 300, a gain of demand for EMC of population with RD relative to the background level is predicted above 200%.

EFFECT: method enables, due to the calculation of a prognostic index, assessment of possible medical-social damage and optimisation of operation of emergency medical care and other institutions during disastrous fires in pine forests near residential areas, and also increases efficiency of hygienic diagnostics of disease incidence on the basis of demand for EMC and prevents possible medical-social losses in case of disastrous forest fires.

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