FIELD: water supply.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to water supply and water disposal systems. Method consists in that, pump station separation is performed to finite number of N elements. As i-th element of pump station, at least one pump is adopted, at least of one type in combination with all other elements of pump station, which failure leads to said pump shutdown. As pump station i-th element probability parameter sudden failures intensities λi, t are adopted, eliminated during current repairs, and their restoration of µi, t intensities, progressive failures λi, k intensities, eliminated during overhauls, and their restoration of µi, k intensities, as random value pump station delivery Q is adopted. Additionally determining finite number n of pump station conditions, j=0, 1, 2, …, n, and corresponding them pump station deliveries Qj, as well as admissible accuracy σadm of random value distribution law determination and assign simulation modelling duration t. Probabilistic simulation is performed by means of pump station operation simulation modelling results data processing. If produced mean-square deviations σ1 and σ2 exceed admissible accuracy σadm of random value distribution law determination, then increasing simulation modelling duration t and repeat simulation stage until obtained mean-square deviations σ1 and σ2 will not decrease to admissible accuracy σadm, and if obtained mean-square deviations σ1 and σ2 does not exceed admissible accuracy σadm of random value distribution law determination, then by statistical analysis of pump station conditions j and corresponding them deliveries Q j, obtained as a result of simulation modelling, obtaining of a random value Q distribution law of F(q), determining for each value q probability of, that random delivery value Q of pump station receives value is less than q, i.e. F(q) = P(Q < q).
EFFECT: method provides increase in pump station operation reliability.
1 cl, 7 dwg
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Authors
Dates
2016-11-20—Published
2015-08-11—Filed