FIELD: medicine.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to medicine, namely to cardiology, and can be used to predict adverse cardiovascular events within 12 months after planned endovascular myocardial revascularization. The method includes determining the level of endothelin-1 in the blood and the ratio of the waist to the thighs before the planned endovascular myocardial revascularization. Then, the risk of developing adverse cardiovascular events p is calculated using the formula p = 1/1 + exp (-z), where p is the probability of developing cardiovascular complications, exp is the exponent, z is the value of the discriminant function, and the value of the discriminant function is determined by the formula z=ax1+bx2, where x1-x2 are the values of the variables corresponding to the indicators under consideration, the coefficients a, b are the weight coefficients of the corresponding indicators, x1 is the concentration of endothelin-1, x1 = 1 - if the concentration of endothelin-1 is greater than 0.75, x1 = 2 - if the concentration of endothelin-1 is less than or equal to 0.751, a = 4.591 is a constant, x2 is the ratio of the waist to the thighs, x2 = 1 - if the ratio of the waist to the thighs is less than or equal to 1.0495, x2 = 2 - if the ratio of the waist to the thighs is greater than 1.0495, b = -2.006 is a constant. If p is less than 0.995, the development of cardiovascular complications is predicted.
EFFECT: use of the invention makes it possible to predict the onset of unfavorable cardiovascular events within 12 months after planned endovascular myocardial revascularization, to obtain an individual risk profile of a particular patient with coronary heart disease with low invasiveness and a high level of sensitivity - 88% and specificity - 92%.
1 cl, 1 dwg, 3 tbl, 2 ex
