METHOD OF ASSESSING THE RISK OF DEATH IN PATIENTS WITH A NEW CORONAVIRUS INFECTION Russian patent published in 2023 - IPC G01N33/49 G01N33/68 

FIELD: medicine; vascular surgery.

SUBSTANCE: invention can be used to assess the risk of death in patients with a new coronavirus infection (NCI). The level of MCP-1 and platelets is determined, the presence of coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes is determined, the intake of oral anticoagulant (DOAC) is taken into account and the severity of NCI is assessed. The probability of developing a lethal outcome is calculated by the formula: P = 1 / (1 + e^-Z), where P is the probability of predicting a lethal outcome, e is the base of the natural logarithm — the Euler number, and Z = -10.108 + 0.009× X1 - 0.01× x2+1.777× X3 + 1.455× X4 - 3.975× X5 + 3.084× X6, where X₁ is initial values of MCP-1, pg/ml; X₂ is initial platelet values, ×10⁹ /l; X₃ is a binary variable reflecting the fact that a patient has coronary artery disease: 1 — yes, 0 — no; X₄ is a binary variable reflecting the presence of type 2 diabetes in a patient: 1 — yes, 0 —no; X₅ is a binary variable reflecting the fact of using DOACs in a patient: 1 — yes, 0 — no; X₆ is a categorical variable reflecting the severity of coronavirus infection in a patient: 1 — easy, 2 — medium, 3 — severe, 4 - extremely severe. At P more than 0.1878, a lethal outcome is predicted in patients with a new coronavirus infection.

EFFECT: method provides an opportunity to effectively predict the development of a lethal outcome in patients with NCI by taking into account data on comorbidity, severity of NCI, determination of a specific pro-inflammatory marker MCP-1, platelet levels and options for anticoagulant therapy in the treatment of patients with NCI.

1 cl, 1 dwg, 4 ex