METHOD FOR FORECASTING OF INSULT ACUITY OUTCOME Russian patent published in 2008 - IPC A61B10/00 

FIELD: medicine.

SUBSTANCE: probability of case of fatality rate in percentage is defined. Thus sex of patient is defined (SEX), thus male is designated as 1, female - as 2; age (AGE), thus the age of less than 40 years is designated as 1, from 40 till 59 years - as 2, from 60 to 80 as 3, more than 80 years - as 4; presence of arterial hypertension (AH) in the anamnesis, ischemic heart trouble (CVD), atrial fibrillation (AF), myocardium heart attack (Ml), dislipidemia (DLP), diabetes (DM), stress (STRESS), insult (PRESTR), thus presence is designated as 1, absence - as 2. Received anamnestic data and results of examination should be substitute into mathematical model of forecasting of survival rate for patients receiving treatment ambulatory: S(t)=e ^{(0.077971)*((0.705192)^(1+t*(0.539213))-1)*e^Y} where: S(t) - function of survival rate depending on time; e - constant equal to 2.7183 (basis of hyperbolic logarithm); t - time from the beginning of insult acuity (in days), Y_ambulatory=0.023865*SEX+0.553548*AGE+(-0.059296)*AH++0.184393 *CVD++0.387131*AF+(-0.325802)*MI+0.007298*DLP+(-0.019912)^ileDM+0.303960*STRESS++0.068226*PRESTR, then into mathematical model of forecasting of survival rate for patients receiving treatment in hospital Y_hospital=0.23865*SEX+0.553548*AGE+(-0.059296)*AH++0.184393*CVD++0.387131*AF+(-0.325802)*MI+0.007298*DLP+(-0.019912)*DM+0.303960*STRESS++0.068226*PRESTR, where: Y_hospital=0.119477*SEX+0.350032*AGE+0.847160*AH+(-0.282700)*CVD++0.548215*AF+0.820587*MI+(-0.048081)*DLP+0.177812*DM+0.561128*STRESS+0.631101*PRESTR and also probability of survival for 1-28 days of acuity in ambulatory and stationary conditions is defined.

EFFECT: working out of simple and fast means of forecasting of insult acuity outcome.

6 dwg, 4 tbl, 3 ex