FIELD: medicine.
SUBSTANCE: invention refers to medicine, namely to cardiology, and can be used to predict the risk of fatal outcome in the patients of middle and advanced age with myocardial infarction with ST segment elevation (MIeST) in the long-term period. Method involves calculating a risk of developing a lethal outcome (h(t)), which takes into account parameters of percutaneous coronary intervention and leukocyte count on the first admission with MIeST, and where h(t) is calculated by the following formula: h(t)=h0(t)*exp(β1x1+β2x2+β3x3+β4x4), where: h(t) is level of risk of lethal outcome for 7 years, h0(t) is a basic error of the function when observed at 7 years, is equal to 0.274, constants exp β1 = 1.343, exp β2, = -1.497, exp β3, = 1.63, exp β4 = -0.157, x1 - presence of repeated vascular events - 1, absence - 0, x2 - consumption of acetylsalicylic acid - 1, absence - 0, x3 - PCI for = 0; without PCI = 1, x4 - level of leukocytes at the first admission, in the presence of value h(t) higher than 0.069 - high risk is stated, at value 0.018–0.068 - moderate risk and less than 0.017 - low risk of lethal outcomes within 7 years.
EFFECT: using the invention enables determining a long-term risk of myocardial infarction and in some cases preventing a fatal outcome.
1 cl, 2 tbl, 3 ex
