METHOD OF LANDSLIDE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION FORCAST Russian patent published in 2009 - IPC E02D1/00 

FIELD: construction.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to industrial or civil construction and may be used as diagnostic method or may be used in oil and gas pipeline construction to establish the risk of landslide. The method provides for assessing integrated effects on landslide processes from spatial natural and man-caused factors. After that, the reference spatial and time factor characteristic for the considered area is defined. The probable value of integral landslide risk indicator is defined based on reference characteristics and taking into account the established rule of landslide development under the considered factors. Initially, the database of landslide and their coordinates is produced based on the landslides recorded in the State Cadastre and located in the considered area. Then, factor characteristics are defined for the above landslides, thus creating initial database for forecasting. Histograms of landslide distribution are the next stage of forecasting process for the considered area depending on each factor characteristics. Only those histograms, which may be described by the normal distribution law, may be selected and qualitative value of factors is defined. Then, histogram of factors relevance based on landslide occurrence frequency is generated and weight factor of each factor is defined to assess factor relevance. During this process, backup factors are identified and excluded by factor characteristic values transmission into non-dimensional indicators. Then, they are unified and integral indicator of factors for each landslide is defined by plotting histogram of occurrence frequency for each landslide. Based on the data obtained, the reference probability distribution of integral factor indicator is calculated. Using the above indicator, forecast probability of landslide development and intensification for each point of the considered area based on the calculated value of the integral indicator.

EFFECT: increased accuracy of landslide development and intensification forecast for any point of the considered area.

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