FIELD: medicine.
SUBSTANCE: risk factors are established by determining polymorphisms of cytokine genes and H. pylory genotype. The risk factors are graded (A1-A2) and assigned values. That is followed by determining the prognostic coefficients P1, P2 by formulas: P1=-1.54+0.57*A1+0.53*A2 and P2=0.21+1.77*A1+1.70*A2, wherein A1 is a genotype of C+3953T IL-1β polymorphism: TT=0.44, TC=0.51, CC=2.63; A2 is a genotype of IL-1Ra VNTR polymorphism: R2R2=1.74, R2R3=8.08, R2R4=1.33, R3R3=1.59, R3R4=0.30, R4R4=0.51. If P1>P2, a low risk is predicted, while P1<P2 enables predicting a high risk of duodenal ulcer. The technique possesses a quite high sensitivity (100%), specificity (50%) and accuracy (75%) in evaluating the risk of duodenal ulcer.
EFFECT: using presented technique enables providing higher accuracy and effectiveness of the prediction of duodenal ulcer at the different stages of the disease that makes it possible to perform the aimed and early actions to prevent propagation of the disease.
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Authors
Dates
2015-02-20—Published
2013-09-30—Filed