METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE RISK OF RECURRENT STENOSING LARYNGOTRACHEITIS IN CHILDREN WITH CROUP SYNDROME Russian patent published in 2018 - IPC A61B5/00 

FIELD: medicine.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to medicine, pediatrics, pulmonology, childhood infectious diseases. In children with croup syndrome, the following indices are determined in absolute values. In presence of atopy, the relatives and/or the child (A) are given a numerical value “1”, in the absence “0”. At a body weight of the child at a birth (M) less than 3 kg, assign a numerical value “0”, at a weight (M) more than 3 kg – “1”. With a secondary education of parents and above the average, and/or a full family (CCC), assign a numerical value “1” when forming below the average, and/or an incomplete family is assigned a numerical value “0”. In the presence of tuberculosis (TUB), the child is currently assigned a numerical value “1” in the history or in the anamnesis, in the absence of tuberculosis in the child at the moment or in the anamnesis – “0”. When primary infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (PI) at the age of 1–3 years (PI older than 1–3 years) is assigned a numerical value “1” in the absence of infection with mycobacteria tuberculosis at the age of 1–3 years – “0”. When primary infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis at the age of more than 3 years (PI older than 3 years) is assigned a numerical value “1” in the absence of infection with mycobacteria tuberculosis in the age of over 3 years is assigned a numerical value “0”. Value (z) of the multiple logistic regression equation is then calculated by the formula: z = 0.7402 + K₁ × A + K₂ × M + K₃ × CCC + K₄ × TUB + K₅ × PI_{1–3 years} + K₆ × PI_{over 3 years}, where 0.7402 is a constant; but the coefficients of the variables: K₁ = 0.128; K₂ = 0.02884; K₃ = 0.0868; K₄ = 0.1432; K₅ = 0.07703; K₆ = -0.673. If the value of z ≥ 0,9, predict a high risk of the formation of recurrent stenosing laryngotracheitis in a specific patient with croup syndrome.

EFFECT: method provides simplification, increase of accuracy and availability of the forecast.

1 cl, 3 ex