METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE FATAL OUTCOME IN SEVERELY BURNED PATIENTS Russian patent published in 2021 - IPC A61B5/00 

FIELD: medicine, burn injury medicine in particular.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to medicine, namely to surgery, combustiology, anesthesiology, resuscitation, and can be used in predicting the fatal outcome in severely burned patients using logistic regression. The age, the area of a deep burn are determined. A clinical, biochemical blood test is conducted. The gas composition of the blood, coagulograms are determined. The acid-base composition of the blood is determined. A clinical analysis of urine is conducted. The body temperature is determined. At the same time, FiO2 and venous blood lactate, the volume of infusion therapy on the third day, the volume of water consumed on the first and third days, and diuresis on the first three days of inpatient treatment are additionally determined. The probability of death is determined according to the formula:

L=24.00 + 0.04*a + 0.04*s_d 0.47*t + 0.04*w_c – 0.05*p + 0.14*u - 0.02*c - 0,05*F – 1.14*P + 0.57*w_u + 0,79*p_u + 0,55*l + 0,45*d₁ - 0,54*d₂ + 0,57*i - 0,28*d₃ + 0,81*w₁ - 2,29*w_,

where:

carry out the conversion of L into the probability Prob in percentage according to the formula:

where e is the base of the natural logarithm. With a Prob value of at least 50%, a high probability of death is predicted.

EFFECT: method provides a prediction of the fatal outcome in severely burned patients due to indicators that take into account all the links of pathogenesis.

1 cl, 3 ex