METHOD FOR EARLY PREDICTION OF LONG-TERM OUTCOME OF CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE Russian patent published in 2023 - IPC G01N33/48 

FIELD: medicine.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to pulmonology, and can be used to assess the development of an unfavorable course of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In a patient with a moderate course of the disease, an analysis of laboratory parameters pathogenetically significant in COPD is carried out, in which, on the first day after hospitalization for an exacerbation of moderate COPD, the post-broncholitic forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV₁), fibrinolytic activity of the blood is determined by the euglobulin method, immunological studies by determining cytokines in the bronchoalveolar fluid — interferon-gamma (IFNγ), interleukin-4 (IL-4) by enzyme immunoassay, the relative content of CD3⁺CD4⁺ cells by direct immunofluorescence and segmented neutrophils in peripheral blood, while the values of these indicators are entered into the equation to determine the Z index. Then the resulting Z value is entered into the formula for calculating the probability of death P=1/(1+e^-Z)×100%, where e is the base of the natural logarithm, equal to 2.718. If the P value is greater than 44.8%, COPD death is predicted within 15 years, and if the value of the indicator is equal to or less than 44.8%, a favorable outcome is predicted.

EFFECT: invention provides increased sensitivity and specificity of survival prognosis in the early stages of COPD, mainly in patients with moderate bronchial obstruction (GOLD2) without concomitant diseases of the cardiovascular system and neurological disorders.

1 cl, 3 dwg, 8 tbl, 3 ex