METHOD FOR SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING Russian patent published in 2024 - IPC G01V9/00 

FIELD: seismology.

SUBSTANCE: invention can be used for monitoring natural environments. A method for short-term earthquake forecasting is proposed. According to the claimed method, two pairs of receiving stations of the global navigation positioning system are placed in a seismic region in mutually orthogonal planes (x, y), spaced apart at measuring bases of up to 50 km with high centring accuracy. The moment of change in base lengths is monitored and identified with the beginning of the seismic process. The length of the seismic centre rocking vector through its projections on the coordinate axes is calculated and the plane of the seismic centre rocking is determined through the cosine of the guides:

. The relative acceleration of the length of the rocking vector is calculated using a numerical method . The moment of impact upon reaching the maximum stress of the earth's crust≤ 10^-2 is predicted. The coordinates and time of the point at which the limiting stresses are reached are recorded. The magnitude (M) of the expected seismic shock is predicted from the relation:

and the EMERCOM services are notified about a predicted seismic shock.

EFFECT: possibility of proactive notification, reliability, documentation and efficiency.

1 cl, 6 dwg