FIELD: physics.
SUBSTANCE: using many years of air temperature series, their standard, anomaly and forecast values are calculated. Tidal potential values of the Sun and the Moon in the preceding multiple-layer period and forecast year are calculated. Analogue periods are selected based on the highest correlation with the recent history of the tital potential of the Sun and the Moon. Temperature values on the isobaric surface AT-850 observed in the analogue periods are corrected based on the effect of the Earth's rotation on atmospheric processes. The analogue period with maximum correlation is selected. A series of values is formed into a forecast period. If the average forecast error does not satisfy given conditions, several analogue periods with high values of the correlation coefficient are selected, from which series of values are formed into a forecast period.
EFFECT: high accuracy of forecasting air temperature owing to interconnection of atmospheric processes and deviations of the Earth's rotation.
1 dwg
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