METHOD OF PREDICTING FREQUENT EXACERBATIONS IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE Russian patent published in 2023 - IPC A61B5/91 G01N33/68 G01N33/52 

FIELD: medicine; therapy; pulmonology.

SUBSTANCE: invention can be used to predict the development of frequent exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease during 12 months of follow-up from the time of seeking medical help for exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The forced expiratory volume in 1 second is determined using spirometry, interleukin 8 and the reserve-adaptive potential of the oxidative modification of venous blood plasma proteins. The probability of developing frequent exacerbations is calculated using the formula P = 1 / (1 + e^-Z), where P is the probability of developing frequent exacerbations, e is the base of the natural logarithm (Euler’s number), and Z is an indicator calculated as follows: Z = 36.8 + 0.085⋅ X1 - 0.73⋅ X2+10⋅ X3, where X1 is the value of forced expiratory volume in 1 second, % of the proper value, X2 is the level of interleukin-8 in venous blood plasma, pg/ml, X3 is the level of reserve-adaptive potential of oxidative modification of proteins in venous blood plasma, and (RAP OMP), calculated as: RAP OMP=1-SP OMB/MC OMP, where SP OMP is the level of spontaneous oxidative modification of venous blood plasma proteins; MC OMB is the level of metal-catalyzed oxidative modification of venous blood plasma proteins. If P<0.45, then chronic obstructive disease with frequent exacerbations is predicted. If P>0.45, then chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with infrequent exacerbations is predicted.

EFFECT: method provides the ability to effectively predict frequent exacerbations — two or more exacerbations during the current year in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from the time they seek medical help for an exacerbation by determining the forced expiratory volume in 1 second using spirometry, interleukin 8 and reserve-adaptive potential of oxidative modification of venous blood plasma proteins with subsequent calculation of the probability of developing frequent exacerbations using a mathematical apparatus.

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