METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF INCIDENCE OF EXACERBATIONS OF CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE Russian patent published in 2024 - IPC G01N33/68 G01N33/573 A61B5/08 A61B10/00 

FIELD: medicine.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to therapy and pulmonology, and can be used to predict the incidence of exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) based on blood plasma laboratory values. Level of C-reactive protein and fractalkine is determined by enzyme immunoassay combined with establishing the COPD phenotype: emphysematous, mixed, bronchitic or phenotype of bronchial asthma with COPD (BA + COPD), presence of pneumococcal vaccination. Probability of frequent exacerbations of COPD is calculated by formula

where p is the probability of frequent exacerbations of COPD - 2–3 times a year in fractions of a unit; e is Euler's number (constant) equal to 2.71828; z = −3.434 + 0.501 × CRP + 2.389 × Emph PH + 2.311×C×Br PH−4.395×CX3CL1−2.927×PV; where −3.434 is a constant; 0.501 is the coefficient of the first variable; CRP is the level of C-reactive protein, mg/l; in case of BA + COPD phenotype in patient: Emph PH is equal to 0, Mix PH is equal to 0, Br PH is equal to 0; 2.389 is the coefficient of the second variable; Emph PH is emphysematous phenotype of COPD, in case of presence of this phenotype in patient: Emph PH is equal to 1, Mix PH is equal to 0, Br PH is equal to 0; 2.311 is the coefficient of the third variable; Mix PH is mixed COPD phenotype, if the patient has this phenotype: Mix PH is equal to 1, Emph PH is equal to 0, Br PH is equal to 0; 3.663 is the coefficient of the fourth variable; Br PH is bronchitic phenotype of COPD, in case of presence of this phenotype in patient: Br PH is equal to 1, Emph PH is equal to 0, Mix PH is equal to 0; −4.395 is the coefficient of the fifth variable; CX3CL1 is fractalkine level, ng/ml; −2.927 is the coefficient of the sixth variable; PV - pneumococcal vaccination: 0 – absence, 1 – presence. If p is less than 0.5, a low risk of frequent exacerbations of COPD is predicted. If p is more than or equal to 0.5, a high risk of frequent exacerbations of COPD is predicted.

EFFECT: method enables to predict the rate of development of exacerbations in patients with different phenotypes of COPD due to: determining blood C-reactive protein and fractalkine, establishing the COPD phenotype and the presence of pneumococcal vaccination.

1 cl, 4 ex