METHOD FOR DYNAMIC ESTIMATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD Russian patent published in 2014 - IPC G01V9/00 

FIELD: physics.

SUBSTANCE: method involves monitoring the situation in at least one area of an expected seismic event belonging to an investigated seismically active region; forming an observation network of n stations separated from each other in the seismically active region; simultaneously and continuously measuring the control parameter which characterises processes in the Earth's crust at all stations of the observation network; determining a region with high seismic activity based on results of comparing the measured control parameter with a threshold value, which is determined based on statistical analysis of values of the control parameter for all previous seismic events in the seismically active region; wherein measurement of the control parameter at all n stations of the observation network is carried out with a constant and identical for all stations time-sampling interval Δt and is recorded in form of an electric signal; forming a regular network for the investigated seismically active region, wherein each of the nodes of the network belongs to an adjacent area of the investigated seismically active region; selecting a time slot; processing electric signals received from said n stations; based on said signals, calculating the median of normalised noise entropy based on a certain number of measurements of the control parameter simultaneously in all measurement stations for each node of the regular network in said time slot; based on the obtained results, constructing a matrix of values of the median of normalised entropy corresponding to said current time slot; displaying said matrix as a map, wherein the region with high seismic activity is defined as a set of areas adjacent to the nodes of the regular network, for which the normalised entropy exceeds a threshold.

EFFECT: high accuracy of predicting an imminent earthquake, enabling estimation of the trend of increase or decrease in seismic hazard.

2 cl, 2 dwg