METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE SEVERITY OF DIPHTHERIA Russian patent published in 2018 - IPC A61B5/00 

FIELD: medicine.

SUBSTANCE: invention relates to medicine, namely to infectious diseases, and can be used to predict severity of diphtheria. For this, clinical indicators are determined: manifestations of hemorrhagic syndrome, presence of diphtheria of the nervous system, determine the degree of severity of the heart, nervous system and kidney damage, presence of pneumonia, diabetes mellitus, encephalopathy, liver enlargement, the presence of serum sickness and strains of toxic corynebacterium diphtheria (CBD). All indicators are scored in points. Obtained points are summed. Calculate the severity index by the formula: index of gravity = -0.6215 + 0.1494 × ICE + 0.0791 × “diphtheria lesion of the nervous system” + 0.1209 × “severity of heart, nervous system and kidney damage” + 0.2344 × pneumonia + 0.1798 × “liver enlargement” – 0.1081 × encephalopathy + 0.1793 × “diabetes” – 0.0714 × “serum sickness” + 0.0434 × “type of CBD”. If severity index is less than 0.436, the development of diphtheria of moderate severity is predicted, the prognosis is favorable. If severity index is 0.436–0.75, the development of diphtheria of severe severity with a low level of favorable prognosis is predicted. At value of the index of gravity above 0.75 predict a superheavy form of diphtheria, the forecast is unfavorable.

EFFECT: method provides a high accuracy of predicting severity of the infectious process and the unfavorable outcome of diphtheria for the timely selection of optimal therapy and choice of tactics for in-patient follow-up, taking into account the level of risk of development of an unfavorable outcome.

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