METHOD FOR PREDICTION OF INDIVIDUAL RISK OF DEVELOPING BRONCHIAL ASTHMA IN HUMAN FOR DIFFERENT LENGTH OF LIFE Russian patent published in 2020 - IPC A61B5/00 G01N33/48 

FIELD: medicine.

SUBSTANCE: invention refers to medicine, particularly to a method for prediction of an individual risk of developing bronchial asthma (BA) in a human for different lengths of life. Content of chemical elements which are dangerous for development of BA is determined in blood: n-, m-xylene, formaldehyde, manganese, chromium and nickel. It is followed by questioning. Initial value of probability p(t_o) of occurrence of asthma in a person at current age t_o at the moment of examination is calculated. Determining functional, laboratory and dichotomous diagnostic indices. Each group of said factors is weighted φ_i from 0.1 to 0.5. Initial value of BA probability p(t₀) is calculated for the current human age. Using an iterative procedure, individual risk of developing asthma in a person with a time interval of 1 day is predicted. Patient is examined for the current blood level of prognostic indices. Their level is compared with physiological norm. For the prognostic index, a probability of exceeding or a probability of its decrease relative to the physiological norm is set. For the prognostic indicator, the total probability excess over the norm, or the general probability of the decrease relative to the norm at the age of the person t is established. General probability of developing a human asthma is calculated, and the risk of the human asthma is predicted from the individual risk.

EFFECT: method enables predicting an individual risk of asthma in a person living in habitat contamination.

1 cl, 2 dwg, 5 tbl, 1 ex