FIELD: medicine.
SUBSTANCE: invention relates to medicine and ecology. In human biomass, the content of iodine, zinc, nickel, manganese, chromium and lead is determined. Define diagnostic laboratory indicators: thyroxine free (T4 free); thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH); antibodies to thyroglobulin (antibodies to TG); antibodies to thyroid peroxidase (antibodies to TPO). Define the marker indicators of ultrasound of the thyroid: volume of the thyroid, its structure and blood flow, and compare these values with the physiological norm. Find the function of violation of Fi according to the claimed mathematical formula. Using the appropriate weighting factor ϕi, an initial probability value p(t0) the emergence of endemic goiter at the current age of a person according to the corresponding formula. Using an iterative procedure, individual risk R is predicted for the development of endemic goiter with a time step of 1 day. For this use the prognostic indicators of TSH, antibodies to TG, antibodies to TPO, malonic dialdehyde (MDA), antioxidant activity (AOA) and glutathione peroxidase (GLPO) and compare their level with the physiological norm. Determine the increase in the probability of deviation from the physiological norm of these indicators by mathematical formulas. Establish for each indicator the total probability p+i (t) exceeding it over the norm according to the claimed formulas. Calculate the overall probability of endemic goiter p(t+K) according to the claimed formula. Individual risk R of the development of endemic goiter for different lengths of life is determined by the appropriate formula. At R less than 0.05, the risk is predicted to be negligible. At a value of 0.05–0.35 – as a moderate. At a value of 0.35–0.6 – as high. At a value of more than 0.6 – as very high.
EFFECT: method allows to demonstratively and informatively predict the individual risk of endemic goiter in a person for different life spans by assessing the complex of the most significant indicators.
1 cl, 2 dwg, 8 tbl, 1 ex
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