METHOD FOR PREDICTING EXACERBATIONS OF BRONCHIAL ASTHMA OVER THE NEXT YEAR IN PATIENTS WITH CONCOMITANT MULTIMORBID PATHOLOGY Russian patent published in 2023 - IPC A61B5/09 A61B5/107 A61B5/11 G01N33/68 G01N33/74 G01N33/84 

FIELD: medicine; therapy; pulmonology.

SUBSTANCE: invention can be used to predict exacerbations of bronchial asthma (BA) over the next year in patients with concomitant multimorbid pathology. Diagnostic indicators are determined as follows: the level of physical activity according to the ODA23+ questionnaire, forced expiratory volume in 1 second of the maneuver, forced expiratory lung capacity (FEV₁), the level of blood serum peroxides, the level of activity of patients according to the Lequesne scale, the level of leptin venous blood, body mass index (BMI), interleukin-6 (IL-6), cumulative disease index CIRS. Based on the data obtained, the probability index of the frequency of BA exacerbation over the next year in patients with concomitant multimorbid pathology (ExacBA) is calculated using the following formula:

ExacBA = 7,57567 - 0,105518×FEV₁ - 0,144268×CIRS - 0,000172187×ODA23⁺×FEV₁ - 0,000901236×ODA23⁺×Leken + 0,00038601×ODA23⁺×BMI - 0,000426185×ODA23⁺×IL6 + 0,00135395×ODA23⁺×CIRS + 0,000477974×FEV₁² + 0,000968334×FEV₁×Leken - 0,000180234×FEV₁×Leptin + 0,000369123×FEV₁×IL6 - 0,00000330283×PerOx×IL6 + 0,000376305×Leptin×BMI - 0,000246557×Leptin×IL6 - 0,000365621×BMI² + 0,000185599×IL6² + 0,00290871×CIRS²,

where ODA23⁺ is the result according to the ODA23+ motor activity questionnaire, in points, FEV₁ is the forced expiratory volume in 1 second, in percent, PerOx is the level of blood serum peroxides, µmol/l, Leken is the result of assessing the dynamics of patients' activity according to the Leken scale, points, Leptin — venous blood leptin level, ng/ml, BMI — body mass index, kg/m², IL6 — IL-6 level, pg/ml, CIRS — cumulative disease index, points. If the ExacBA value is less than 2, a low risk of developing BA exacerbations is predicted, with the number of exacerbations once a year. With an ExacBA value of 2 or more, a high risk of exacerbations is predicted, with the number of exacerbations per year 2 or more times.

EFFECT: method makes it possible to obtain a reliable prognosis for the development of BA exacerbations in patients with concomitant multimorbid pathology over the next year by studying a complex of factors using the mathematical apparatus of multivariate regression analysis.

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